The World Trade Organization (WTO), in its newly released World Trade Report 2025, forecasts that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could lead to a 40% jump in global trade by 2040 — opening massive opportunities for MSMEs in emerging economies like India.
But the report also cautions that without targeted digital policy support, AI may deepen existing inequalities, especially for small businesses with limited access to infrastructure and talent.
AI can unlock global trade — but only if MSMEs can access it
The WTO simulations highlight that:
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If low-income countries close just 50% of their digital infrastructure gap, income growth could rise to 15%, compared to 8% otherwise
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Fewer than one-third of small firms in low- and lower-middle-income countries currently use AI tools
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AI adoption could accelerate MSME integration into global value chains (GVCs) and reduce entry barriers to new markets
The report identifies key areas where AI can enhance trade performance:
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Supply chain visibility and risk mitigation
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Automated customs and regulatory navigation
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Language translation and contract automation
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Faster compliance with cross-border trade norms
India’s MSMEs must be part of the global AI trade shift
The Federation of Indian Micro and Small & Medium Enterprises (FISME) has welcomed the WTO report and called for a national AI adoption blueprint tailored for India’s MSMEs.
In a statement, FISME noted:
“This report should serve as a blueprint for India. AI can help MSMEs trade more and trade better — but only if we close the digital infrastructure and skills gap first.”
FISME added that international cooperation, investment in capacity-building, and simplified AI tools are critical to ensure Indian MSMEs don’t get left behind in the global digital economy.
Digital inclusion is key to equitable AI-driven growth
The WTO report stresses that AI is not just a tool for big business. With the right support, it can level the playing field for:
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Women-led and rural MSMEs
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Exporters in non-metro regions
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Agri-tech, handicrafts, and digital services sectors
It also praised programs like “Digital Trade for Africa” and “Women Exporters in the Digital Economy (WEIDE) Fund” as effective models for inclusive tech trade strategies.
The report concludes that AI adoption in trade is inevitable, but equity is not automatic. To truly benefit from the 40% global trade uplift, developing nations must act fast — investing in education, infrastructure, and accessible AI ecosystems for small enterprises.